{"id":6127,"date":"2022-01-09T12:23:19","date_gmt":"2022-01-09T12:23:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mediateka.online\/learnrussian\/ukraines-fate-hangs-in-balance-as-critical-week-of-talks-begins.html"},"modified":"2022-01-09T12:23:19","modified_gmt":"2022-01-09T12:23:23","slug":"ukraines-fate-hangs-in-balance-as-critical-week-of-talks-begins","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mediateka.online\/learnrussian\/ukraines-fate-hangs-in-balance-as-critical-week-of-talks-begins.html","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine\u2019s fate hangs in balance as \u2018critical\u2019 week of talks begins"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Experts say prospects of deal are \u2018very, very dicey\u2019 as top US and Russian diplomats meet in Geneva<\/p>\n<figure id=\"2aee2231-2ee4-4980-8c48-9041b3f45a2e\" class=\"dcr-13udsys\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/50dfd6248b499ed725299fd05101fb7507c208f7\/406_878_3223_1933\/master\/3223.jpg?width=465&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=147cffb54f5049f5a29a84eebd6f8567\" alt=\"Russian troops take part in drills in the southern Rostov region of the country\" height=\"1200\" width=\"2000\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Russian troops take part in drills in the southern Rostov region of the country\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/50dfd6248b499ed725299fd05101fb7507c208f7\/406_878_3223_1933\/master\/3223.jpg?width=465&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=147cffb54f5049f5a29a84eebd6f8567\" height=\"1200\" width=\"2000\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb\"><\/noscript> Russian troops take part in drills in the southern Rostov region of the country. Moscow has amassed 100,000 troops in the Ukrainian border region.  Photograph: APRussian troops take part in drills in the southern Rostov region of the country. Moscow has amassed 100,000 troops in the Ukrainian border region.  Photograph: AP<\/figure>\n<p> in Washington<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">A momentous week of diplomacy is about to get under way in Europe, with the fate of Ukraine, hemmed in by 100,000 Russian troops, hanging in the balance.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Senior diplomats from the US and Russia will meet in Geneva on Sunday and Monday to discuss Moscow\u2019s demands, set out last month in two draft treaties, one with the US and one with Nato. Much of their content is unacceptable to Washington and the alliance, most importantly a pledge that Ukraine will never be a Nato member.<\/p>\n<p id=\"sign-in-gate\">\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">The Biden administration insists that sovereign states\u2019 right to apply for Nato membership is non-negotiable. Nor are US troop deployments in Europe, administration officials have stressed on the eve of the talks. They said, however, that Washington would discuss other security guarantees, such as mutual limits on missile deployments on the continent. That would fall far short of the comprehensive changes Moscow is demanding.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"a9a3a836-07a3-4eca-a531-983f66f29dea\" class=\"dcr-1mfia18\">US secretary of state says diplomatic solution to Ukraine crisis still possible<\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Few if any diplomatic observers expect a quick deal to resolve the crisis this week, but the opposite &#8211; a complete breakdown &#8211; is possible. It should quickly become apparent whether Russia is interested in negotiating over its proposals or whether they were designed to be rejected, creating a pretext for a war Vladimir Putin has already decided on.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cLower your expectations and then lower them some more,\u201d said Melinda Haring, the deputy director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council. \u201cWatch Moscow\u2019s demands in the meetings. If Russia insists that Nato cannot expand ever again, we will know that Moscow is preparing for war in Ukraine, since this is a red line for the west.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">The two sides in Geneva will be led by veteran negotiators, the US deputy secretary of state, Wendy Sherman, and her Russian counterpart, Sergei Ryabkov, accompanied by senior officials from their respective defence departments and militaries. The negotiations are scheduled to begin on Monday, but officials said there would be a less formal meeting between the two delegations on Sunday evening.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">US officials insist that Sherman and her team will only discuss the bilateral elements of Russia\u2019s proposals, and not anything in which other countries have a sovereign stake. The mantra to Kiev and Nato capitals is: \u201cNothing about you without you.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"01b6b87d-c5ff-4a2d-9eac-13100ea2bbf9\" class=\"dcr-10khgmf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" alt=\"What it&#039;s like to walk on the Ukraine frontline \u2013 video\" height=\"259\" width=\"460\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb lazyload\"><noscript><img alt=\"What it&#039;s like to walk on the Ukraine frontline \u2013 video\" height=\"259\" width=\"460\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb\"><\/noscript>01:22What it&#8217;s like to walk on the Ukraine frontline \u2013 video<\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">The negotiating teams will move to Brussels on Wednesday for a session of the Nato-Russia Council, in which all 30 alliance members will take part. It will be the first such meeting since 2019 of the council, which was established in 2002 to defuse tensions and build consensus.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">The next day there will be a meeting in Vienna of the permanent council of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), chaired by Poland. Representatives will be on a more junior, ambassadorial level than the Nato session the previous day. It will, however, be imbued with particular significance because it will include non-Nato European states such as Finland and Sweden, who are contemplating their future in light of Russia\u2018s pressure on Ukraine. Finnish leaders in particular have hinted heavily in the past few days they might look anew at Nato membership.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cWe believe that after bilateral talks with the United States and then the Nato format, it is possible that in this wider forum, some developments are possible,\u201d Nikodem Racho\u0144, the spokesman for the Polish embassy in Warsaw, said. <\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Washington says the US-Russia meeting in Geneva will primarily be an opportunity to present positions rather than resolve them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cOn Monday we will listen to Russia explain its proposals and the underlying concerns motivating them. We will respond and share our own concerns,\u201d a senior administration official said. \u201cHopefully it will result in identifying a few bilateral issues where there is enough common ground to continue discussions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">It is not clear whether either Sherman or Ryabkov have been empowered to put new ideas on the table. \u201cThey will talk about the Russian posture, they will talk about stability,\u201d said a European diplomat briefed on US preparations. \u201cThey will talk about the Russian demands and explain why they\u2019re not acceptable, and they will lay out some queries of our own about European stability and Russian actions.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"fe229d33-b1f8-4c7e-bac0-306f1404e54c\" class=\"dcr-10khgmf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/4bd4f029b76e1c822d7e0f9e2c3290f87f2ed0a5\/0_334_3200_1920\/master\/3200.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=bf0c2c5c326b95f17e5b8be4dd9c633c\" alt=\"The US president, Joe Biden, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin\" height=\"1920\" width=\"3200\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"The US president, Joe Biden, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/4bd4f029b76e1c822d7e0f9e2c3290f87f2ed0a5\/0_334_3200_1920\/master\/3200.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=bf0c2c5c326b95f17e5b8be4dd9c633c\" height=\"1920\" width=\"3200\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb\"><\/noscript>The US president, Joe Biden, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Photograph: Mandel Ngan\/SPUTNIK\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Sherman is also expect to list the costs to Russia if it goes ahead with military action in Ukraine, including sweeping financial sanctions, possibly cutting it off from the international electronic payments system, Swift, and limits on its citizens\u2019 ability to buy western technology.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">According to the New York Times, the chairman of the US joint chief of staff, Gen Mark Milley, has also warned his Russian counterpart, Gen Valery Gerasimov, that an invasion would face a long insurgency, backed by advanced US weaponry. US officials have refused to comment on reports that Stinger anti-aircraft missiles were being sent to Ukraine in anticipation of such a guerrilla war.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cThis week\u2019s diplomacy is critical. From a certain moment it was clear that the West would not say an outright \u2018no\u2019 to Moscow\u2019s proposal because too much was at stake. The question was, how far Washington and Europeans are ready to go with the talks,\u201d said Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior research fellow at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Russia\u2019s rushed military intervention in Kazakhstan has thrown another wild card onto the table, but Baklitskiy does not expect any impact on the Ukraine crisis. \u201cThere is no direct link between Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Even the people handling the issue in Russia are different except for the very top,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Others say it is too early to tell whether the uprising and the response will unnerve or embolden the Kremlin. \u201cTo what extent are the Russians worried about Kazakhstan or believe they can manage it? I don\u2019t think we have a feel for that yet,\u201d one European diplomat said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">If there is wiggle room at all in this week\u2019s negotiations, it could come in one of a handful of categories. The Biden administration and Nato\u2019s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, have ruled out bowing to Russian demands to preclude Ukraine\u2019s membership of the alliance, but some analysts say that leaves open the possibility of a compromise, in which the theoretical possibility of membership is asserted at the same time as a clear statement that there would be many obstacles to overcome and so would not happen in the near future.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"facb9288-d6e4-4bc8-a3d2-bfe020c89e43\" class=\"dcr-10khgmf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/e7a3050941a69e2a21a4c7426431e032c055a616\/0_27_3898_2341\/master\/3898.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=7a08683f8be2b011fe7f443c1e16daeb\" alt=\"The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg\" height=\"2341\" width=\"3898\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/e7a3050941a69e2a21a4c7426431e032c055a616\/0_27_3898_2341\/master\/3898.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=7a08683f8be2b011fe7f443c1e16daeb\" height=\"2341\" width=\"3898\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb\"><\/noscript>The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg. Photograph: Anadolu Agency\/Getty Images<\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">That may be palatable in Washington and Nato capitals, but it may well not be enough for Putin. \u201cFrankly, I\u2019d be surprised if it was,\u201d the European diplomat said. \u201cGiven their demands I think they prefer to have the issue not addressed at all. Otherwise it shows they haven\u2019t got their demand about Ukraine not joining Nato written down.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Another area of possible compromise is on the deployment of forces. The Russian proposals call for the withdrawal of US forces from Nato\u2019s eastern flank, where they were sent after Moscow\u2019s 2014 annexation of Crimea, and a guarantee that no intermediate-range nuclear capable missiles would be deployed on European soil.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">The proposals did not offer reciprocal moves by Russia to pull back its troops from the Ukrainian border region or withdraw its own missiles. That could be an area for negotiation. Russia has expressed concerns about the possibility of offensive weapons, such as missiles capable of reaching Moscow, being deployed in Ukraine. Washington has said it has no intention of taking such a step.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"a0b157ec-cdf4-4952-afb7-fbf8beeb9ed2\" class=\"dcr-1mfia18\">EU\u2019s top diplomat visits Ukraine frontline in show of solidarity<\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cPutin could go back and say we\u2019ve been assured that there\u2019s no imminent admission of Ukraine to Nato and we have assurances there will be no strike weapons &#8211; combat aircraft, missiles &#8211; or US bases in Ukraine,\u201d said Rajan Menon, a political scientist at the City University of New York. \u201cBut will Russians insist that this be put in writing? That\u2019s the sticky part.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">The most severe limiting factor in the negotiations could turn out to be the political constraints on the main parties.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cIf you look at the polarisation here, it suggests that we have no bandwidth on the US side to actually do anything, sue for peace, let alone come up with a treaty or series of treaties,\u201d said Fiona Hill, a former senior director for European and Russian affairs on the US National Security Council. \u201cPutin has his own time frame of elections in 2024, and he wants to have something to show because his own popularity is lagging somewhat.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">The deployment of so many troops and the Kremlin\u2019s rhetoric have set high Russian expectations of what would constitute a satisfactory outcome from the week\u2019s diplomacy. Officials in Moscow have insisted that nothing short of \u201clegally formulated guarantees of security\u201d would be enough to pull back the troops from the Ukrainian border.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cPutin has put himself in a position where he has to come back with something, without looking really weak,\u201d Menon said. \u201c\u200b\u200bGiven the political realities now, am I confident that a deal is going to happen? No, not at all. I think it\u2019s going to be very, very dicey.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><!--noindex--><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2022\/jan\/09\/ukraine-fate-hangs-in-balance-as-critical-week-of-talks-begins\">Source<\/a><!--\/noindex--><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Experts say prospects of deal are \u2018very, very dicey\u2019 as top US and Russian diplomats meet in Geneva Russian troops take part in drills in the southern Rostov region of the country. Moscow has amassed 100,000 troops in the Ukrainian border region. Photograph: APRussian troops take part in drills in the southern Rostov region of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/50dfd6248b499ed725299fd05101fb7507c208f7\/406_878_3223_1933\/master\/3223.jpg?width=465&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=147cffb54f5049f5a29a84eebd6f8567","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[87],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news-from-russia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine\u2019s fate hangs in balance as \u2018critical\u2019 week of talks begins - Learn Russian<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mediateka.online\/learnrussian\/ukraines-fate-hangs-in-balance-as-critical-week-of-talks-begins.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine\u2019s fate hangs in balance as \u2018critical\u2019 week of talks begins - Learn Russian\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Experts say prospects of deal are \u2018very, very dicey\u2019 as top US and Russian diplomats meet in Geneva Russian troops take part in drills in the southern Rostov region of the country. 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