{"id":5197,"date":"2021-11-14T02:23:22","date_gmt":"2021-11-14T02:23:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mediateka.online\/learnrussian\/far-from-the-border-forest-minsk-and-moscow-dictate-refugees-fate.html"},"modified":"2021-11-14T02:23:22","modified_gmt":"2021-11-14T02:23:22","slug":"far-from-the-border-forest-minsk-and-moscow-dictate-refugees-fate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mediateka.online\/learnrussian\/far-from-the-border-forest-minsk-and-moscow-dictate-refugees-fate.html","title":{"rendered":"Far from the border forest, Minsk and Moscow dictate refugees\u2019 fate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>President Lukashenko is using a humanitarian crisis to further his own ends \u2013 but his success depends on which path Putin follows<\/p>\n<figure id=\"4f9616cf-9ab4-46c1-bfab-94be6a351495\" class=\"dcr-13udsys\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/37cc44162b581e379dfc4a58b79d3baa3993c540\/0_150_2000_1200\/master\/2000.jpg?width=465&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=8323f4202cddbe4825ab7d992fad0e57\" alt=\"In clearing in forest, soldiers on one side of the fence and migrant encampments with smoke from fires on the other side.\" height=\"1200\" width=\"2000\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"In clearing in forest, soldiers on one side of the fence and migrant encampments with smoke from fires on the other side.\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/37cc44162b581e379dfc4a58b79d3baa3993c540\/0_150_2000_1200\/master\/2000.jpg?width=465&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=8323f4202cddbe4825ab7d992fad0e57\" height=\"1200\" width=\"2000\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb\"><\/noscript> Polish armed forces patrol the border with Belarus at Kuznica on Thursday, as the situation continues to intensify, with hundreds of migrants arriving at the border seeking to cross into the EU.  Photograph: Irek Dorozanski\/Polish Ministry of National Defence via GettyPolish armed forces patrol the border with Belarus at Kuznica on Thursday, as the situation continues to intensify, with hundreds of migrants arriving at the border seeking to cross into the EU.  Photograph: Irek Dorozanski\/Polish Ministry of National Defence via Getty<\/figure>\n<p>, in Moscow<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Gunshots echo through the forest as Belarusian soldiers fire warning shots to drive back terrified asylum-seekers from Iraq and Syria seeking aid. Along the border, Polish and Belarusian troops eye each other warily through razor wire fence. At night, Polish guards say they\u2019ve been blinded by Belarusians wielding strobe lights and lasers as migrants sneak across.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Asylum seekers have described hellish conditions in the forests and at improvised campsites, where they chop branches for firewood and ration water to survive. The body of a young Syrian man was found in the forest in Poland on Friday, at least the ninth person to have died this year. Others have been beaten by attackers and thieves waiting in the forest.<\/p>\n<p id=\"sign-in-gate\">\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">This is the chaos on Europe\u2019s eastern border in 2021. In the past year, Alexander Lukashenko, the autocratic leader of Belarus, has gone from nuisance, to international pariah, to nemesis. His greatest gambit yet has been to engineer a new migrant crisis on the borders of the EU, utilising the desperation of thousands of people to take revenge on Brussels for sanctions against his regime.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">He believes that by escalating this crisis to the point of a humanitarian catastrophe, he can force the EU to the table. In his most bombastic comments, he has even threatened that his ally Russia could be drawn into a border conflict with Europe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cHe is not afraid of deaths at the border,\u201d said a panel of experts from the European Council on Foreign Relations last week. \u201cFor him, this is about vengeance and is a matter of regime survival \u2013 meaning that he is ready to escalate further, and to seek Russia\u2019s backing in the process.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Lukashenko\u2019s top backer seems to have balked at his most aggressive threats. On Saturday, Vladimir Putin said that Lukashenko was speaking out of turn when he threatened to cut Russian gas deliveries to Europe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cI\u2019m hearing about this for the first time \u2026 he didn\u2019t even suggest it to me,\u201d Putin said in his first public remarks on the crisis since a column of more than 1,000 migrants, many Iraqi Kurds, descended on the border last week. \u201cHe could do this in theory but there\u2019s nothing good about it.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"69f96dc3-866a-430d-8201-8581de20233d\" class=\"dcr-10khgmf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/c70fc83f054670e43da430bc4c5eac0b6227554f\/0_129_2989_1794\/master\/2989.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=16b142fce50e940b75576fb06f2e43a7\" alt=\"Migrants queue up to receive aid near Grodno, in Belarus, near the border with Poland.\" height=\"1794\" width=\"2989\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Migrants queue up to receive aid near Grodno, in Belarus, near the border with Poland.\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/c70fc83f054670e43da430bc4c5eac0b6227554f\/0_129_2989_1794\/master\/2989.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=16b142fce50e940b75576fb06f2e43a7\" height=\"1794\" width=\"2989\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb\"><\/noscript>Migrants queue up to receive aid near Grodno, in Belarus, near the border with Poland. Photograph: Leonid Shcheglov\/AP<\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Putin also distanced Russia from the crisis, possibly with an eye on EU sanctions that are set to target Belarus and airlines ferrying migrants from the Middle East this week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cI want everyone to know we have nothing to do with it,\u201d Putin said in an interview for <em>Moscow. Kremlin. Putin<\/em>, a show mostly about him. \u201cEveryone is trying to reshuffle some responsibility on to us in any case or without a case at all. But none of our airlines transport those people.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Europeans, particularly Ukrainians, have heard these kinds of denials before. Since 2014, Russia has repeatedly claimed it has nothing to do with the conflict in south-east Ukraine, despite ample evidence that Russian troops have fought and died there, and that Russia sends money, men and materiel to arm its proxies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Now, as Belarus\u2019s main backer in a conflict with the EU, Moscow is pursuing a similar strategy: trying to initiate talks between Minsk and European countries, in particular Germany, while playing the role of disinterested party. Few buy this.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cIt\u2019s the same way that they had \u2018nothing to do with\u2019 green men in Crimea,\u201d said Linas Linkevicius, a former foreign and defence minister of Lithuania, in response to Putin\u2019s comments. Angela Merkel, the outgoing German chancellor, called Putin last week to tell him to influence the regime in Minsk. The prime minister of Poland, who has authorised extreme, controversial measures to push back migrants from its borders, has accused Putin of \u201cmasterminding\u201d the migrant crisis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">The signals from Russia are not encouraging. In the past week, US officials have warned of a new Russian buildup, with tanks, artillery, even short-range ballistic missiles moving in to border regions with Ukraine and Belarus. If it doesn\u2019t point to an imminent invasion, the unusual military activity means Russia can mobilise quickly if it decides to send a large force across the border.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cOur concern is that Russia may make a serious mistake of attempting to rehash what it undertook back in 2014, when it amassed forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory and did so claiming falsely that it was provoked,\u201d US secretary of state Antony Blinken said on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">Meanwhile, Russia has deployed paratroopers and nuclear-capable bombers to Belarus for training exercises this week in a sign of its continuing support for Minsk. On Friday, Russia sent two bombers over the North Sea, where the RAF had to scramble fighters to intercept them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">\u201cThe military-political situation in Europe is deteriorating. The Nato military buildup near Russian borders is continuing,\u201d said a deputy to Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu during talks in Paris this week. Putin has also complained about recent Nato drills in the Black Sea and Ukraine\u2019s use of Turkish drones in east Ukraine.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"bb455be0-f266-418c-8803-0a760b47640e\" class=\"dcr-10khgmf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/c922d90b51483c407a22ac0f10ec9c4a7ce0f0f5\/0_231_3500_2100\/master\/3500.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=c2d857d3d54a2c39969379d226396bc2\" alt=\"Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko flanked by flags.\" height=\"2100\" width=\"3500\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko flanked by flags.\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/c922d90b51483c407a22ac0f10ec9c4a7ce0f0f5\/0_231_3500_2100\/master\/3500.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=c2d857d3d54a2c39969379d226396bc2\" height=\"2100\" width=\"3500\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-1989ovb\"><\/noscript>If the border standoff worsens, President Lukashenko hopes it will provoke Russia to come to his aid. Photograph: Nikolai Petrov\/Reuters<\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">The rising tension between east and west suits Lukashenko, who has pinned his hopes on Russia\u2019s backing. He said last week: \u201cWe know that if, God forbid, we make some mistake, if we stumble, it will immediately draw Russia into this whirlpool and this is the largest nuclear power.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-o5gy41\">But in turning himself into one of Europe\u2019s greatest threats, the former Belarus farming boss is playing a dangerous game. New European sanctions, which could target airlines or even the Minsk airport, are expected to drive Belarus further into isolation. And even stalwart opponents of Lukashenko question whether his Kremlin backing is unconditional. Franak Via\u010dorka, an advisor to opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, said of Lukashenko\u2019s threats to cut off gas to Europe: \u201cPredictably, he didn\u2019t consult the Kremlin. He is again trying to hide behind [Russia]. The crisis on the border will be solved by dismantling dictatorship in Minsk.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><!--noindex--><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2021\/nov\/13\/far-from-the-border-forest-minsk-and-moscow-dictate-refugees-fate\">Source<\/a><!--\/noindex--><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Lukashenko is using a humanitarian crisis to further his own ends \u2013 but his success depends on which path Putin follows Polish armed forces patrol the border with Belarus at Kuznica on Thursday, as the situation continues to intensify, with hundreds of migrants arriving at the border seeking to cross into the EU. Photograph: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5198,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/37cc44162b581e379dfc4a58b79d3baa3993c540\/0_150_2000_1200\/master\/2000.jpg?width=465&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=8323f4202cddbe4825ab7d992fad0e57","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[87],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news-from-russia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Far from the border forest, Minsk and Moscow dictate refugees\u2019 fate - Learn Russian<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mediateka.online\/learnrussian\/far-from-the-border-forest-minsk-and-moscow-dictate-refugees-fate.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Far from the border forest, Minsk and Moscow dictate refugees\u2019 fate - Learn Russian\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"President Lukashenko is using a humanitarian crisis to further his own ends \u2013 but his success depends on which path Putin follows Polish armed forces patrol the border with Belarus at Kuznica on Thursday, as the situation continues to intensify, with hundreds of migrants arriving at the border seeking to cross into the EU. 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